Spatially variable pesticide application in olive groves: Evaluation of potential pesticide-savings through stochastic spatial simulation algorithms

Site-specific management using spatial crown volume characterization can greatly reduce the amount of pesticides applied in agricultural treatments performed with air-assisted sprayers, while helping farmers achieve the European legislation on safe use of pesticides. Nevertheless, variable rate treatments in olive groves have received little attention. Thus, field research was conducted in a 20.6-ha traditional olive grove. Two attributes of the trees – tree crown volume (V) and tree projected area – were determined, using 67 samples for V and all trees of the field (1433) for tree projected area. Spatial continuity of both attributes was modelled with exponential variograms. To gain a measure of local uncertainty, stochastic simulation algorithms were applied. One hundred simulated images were obtained for tree projected area using direct sequential simulation. Tree projected area simulations were used to improve spatial prediction of V, more difficult and more expensive to obtain, taking advantage of the high linear correlation between both variables (rxy = 0.72,p < 0.001). Thus, direct sequential cosimulation was employed to predict the spatial distribution of V, obtaining 100 geostatistical realizations of V. In order to estimate the potential reduction of pesticide use in the farm with variable rate treatments, two cut-off values of V were considered (50 and 100 m3crown volume). Local uncertainty, understood as the probability of each tree belonging to a given crown volume interval was determined. Probability maps were further transformed to morphological maps and finally to variable prescription maps. Two scenarios with 2 and 3 management zones (MZs) were obtained. In comparison with a conventional phytosanitary application, the variable rate treatments could reduce the pesticide amounts by 21.3% with 2 MZs, and by 38% with 3 MZs. The joint use of V and tree projected area in stochastic sequential simulation algorithms has shown to be useful to determine MZs in olive groves.