Long-term Salinity, Hydrology, and Forested Wetlands Along a Tidal Freshwater Gradient

Tidal freshwater forested wetlands (TFFWs) commonly occur along coastal rivers; however, sea level rise and changes to river discharge may impact these wetlands. Information that characterizes the hydrology and salinity regime of the TFFW zone is needed to assess risk and predict future viability. A combination of field data and modeling were used to characterize TFFW hydrology, salinity, and vegetation along two distributaries (the East River and St. Marks River) of the Apalachicola River in west Florida, USA. Six gaging stations were established (three per river) roughly equidistant along the TFFW tidal gradient to monitor salinity and water levels at the river-wetland interface. Eighteen 500-m 2 forest survey stations (nine per river) were also established roughly equidistant between (and including) the upper and lower gaging stations to measure canopy trees (> 2.54 cm DBH) and calculate species importance values (IV 200 ). Field measures, along with other monitoring and model data, were used to develop a 30-year salinity record (1985–2015) for each gaging station based on an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Optimal ANN models for each TFFW gaging station were selected based on Akaike’s Information Criteria, and 30-year mean daily salinity was interpolated to all forest survey stations based on river distance. Important input variables for the ANN models included daily Apalachicola River discharge, Apalachicola Bay tidal stage, and bay salinity, among others. Based on 30-year salinity models, mean daily salinity ranged between 0.30 and 0.63 ppt at the downriver stations of East and St. Marks Rivers, respectively, to 0.14 and 0.14 ppt at the upriver stations, respectively. Results showed a predictable reduction in mean salinity and salinity ranges further upriver at both rivers; however, the St. Marks River showed a distinct inflection point in reduced salinity compared with the East River. Evaluating tree species IV 200 , there was a shift to species indicative of non-tidal conditions midway up the study reach of the St. Marks River while tidal species remained prominent throughout the East River study reach. Comparison of salinity, tidal reach, and species IV 200 for each river suggests hydrology may be the most important contributor to the downriver extent of TFFWs while salinity may be an important driver of TFFW community composition.