Optimizing the timing of diagnostic testing after positive findings in lung cancer screening: a proof of concept radiomics study

Background The timeliness of diagnostic testing after positive screening remains suboptimal because of limited evidence and methodology, leading to delayed diagnosis of lung cancer and over-examination. We propose a radiomics approach to assist with planning of the diagnostic testing interval in lung cancer screening. Methods From an institute-based lung cancer screening cohort, we retrospectively selected 92 patients with pulmonary nodules with diameters ≥ 3 mm at baseline (61 confirmed as lung cancer by histopathology; 31 confirmed cancer-free). Four groups of region-of-interest-based radiomic features (n = 310) were extracted for quantitative characterization of the nodules, and eight features were proven to be predictive of cancer diagnosis, noise-robust, phenotype-related, and non-redundant. A radiomics biomarker was then built with the random survival forest method. The patients with nodules were divided into low-, middle- and high-risk subgroups by two biomarker cutoffs that optimized time-dependent sensitivity and specificity for decisions about diagnostic workup within 3 months and about repeat screening after 12 months, respectively. A radiomics-based follow-up schedule was then proposed. Its performance was visually assessed with a time-to-diagnosis plot and benchmarked against lung RADS and four other guideline protocols. Results The radiomics biomarker had a high time-dependent area under the curve value (95% CI) for predicting lung cancer diagnosis within 12 months; training: 0.928 (0.844, 0.972), test: 0.888 (0.766, 0.975); the performance was robust in extensive cross-validations. The time-to-diagnosis distributions differed significantly between the three patient subgroups, p < 0.001: 96.2% of high-risk patients (n = 26) were diagnosed within 10 months after baseline screen, whereas 95.8% of low-risk patients (n = 24) remained cancer-free by the end of the study. Compared with the five existing protocols, the proposed follow-up schedule performed best at securing timely lung cancer diagnosis (delayed diagnosis rate: < 5%) and at sparing patients with cancer-free nodules from unnecessary repeat screenings and examinations (false recommendation rate: 0%). Conclusions Timely management of screening-detected pulmonary nodules can be substantially improved with a radiomics approach. This proof-of-concept study’s results should be further validated in large programs.