A deep-learning model to continuously predict severe acute kidney injury based on urine output changes in critically ill patients

Background Acute Kidney Injury (AKI), a frequent complication of pateints in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), is associated with a high mortality rate. Early prediction of AKI is essential in order to trigger the use of preventive care actions. Methods The aim of this study was to ascertain the accuracy of two mathematical analysis models in obtaining a predictive score for AKI development. A deep learning model based on a urine output trends was compared with a logistic regression analysis for AKI prediction in stages 2 and 3 (defined as the simultaneous increase of serum creatinine and decrease of urine output, according to the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) guidelines). Two retrospective datasets including 35,573 ICU patients were analyzed. Urine output data were used to train and test the logistic regression and the deep learning model. Results The deep learning model defined an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.89 (± 0.01), sensitivity = 0.8 and specificity = 0.84, which was higher than the logistic regression analysis. The deep learning model was able to predict 88% of AKI cases more than 12 h before their onset: for every 6 patients identified as being at risk of AKI by the deep learning model, 5 experienced the event. On the contrary, for every 12 patients not considered to be at risk by the model, 2 developed AKI. Conclusion In conclusion, by using urine output trends, deep learning analysis was able to predict AKI episodes more than 12 h in advance, and with a higher accuracy than the classical urine output thresholds. We suggest that this algorithm could be integrated in the ICU setting to better manage, and potentially prevent, AKI episodes. Graphic abstract