Tipping Cycles

Ecological systems are studied using many different approaches and mathematical tools. One approach, based on the Jacobian of Lotka-Volterra type models, has been a staple of mathematical ecology for years, leading to many ideas such as on questions of system stability. Instability in such systems is determined by the presence of an eigenvalue of the community matrix lying in the right half plane. The coefficients of the characteristic polynomial derived from community matrices contain information related to the specific matrix elements that play a greater destabilising role. Yet the destabilising circuits, or cycles, constructed by multiplying these elements together, form only a subset of all the feedback loops comprising a given system. This paper explores the destabilising feedback loops in predator-prey, mutualistic and competitive systems and shows how matrix structure plays a significant role in their stability. A method is then described in which a variable acting on the self-regulating terms of the community matrix enables one to determine the size of the key feedback that leads to a system's tipping point.