Consistent Poplar Clone Ranking Based on Leaf Phenology and Temperature Along a Latitudinal and Climatic Gradient in Northern Europe

In Northern Europe, poplars ( Populus ) can provide biomass for energy and material use, but most available clones were developed for lower latitudes and are unlikely to be well adapted to higher latitudes, even under warmer climates. We thus need to understand how clones respond to climatic conditions and photoperiod, and how these responses can be predicted. We answer these questions exploiting leaf phenological data of Populus clones, grown in six sites across the Baltic region, in Northern Europe, for 2 years with contrasting climatic conditions. Regarding the effects of climatic conditions and photoperiod, within each site, higher temperatures advanced the timing and enhanced the speed of spring and autumn phenology, but reduced the effective growing season length. Across sites, latitude affected the timing of spring and autumn phenology, the speed of spring phenology, and the effective growing season length; clone affected only the timing of phenology. Regarding the predictability of clone response to growing conditions, the growing degree day (GDD) model could not predict spring phenology, because the growing degree day threshold for a specific phenological stage was not only clone-, but also latitude- and year-specific. Yet, this GDD threshold allowed a robust ranking of clones across sites and years, thus providing a tool to determine the relative differences across clones, independently of latitude and temperature. A similar, but not as strong, pattern was observed in the timing of spring and autumn phenological stages. Hence, while prediction of spring phenology remains elusive, the ranking of clones based on observations of their phenology in a single location can provide useful indications on the clones’ relative performance under different latitudes and climates.