Climate change, habitat connectivity, and conservation gaps: a case study of four ungulate species endemic to the Tibetan Plateau

Context Habitat connectivity is essential for the long-term persistence of species, but is commonly disregarded in climate change impact studies. The Tibetan Plateau contains a biome rich in endemic ungulates, which are highly sensitive to climatic variations and deserve particular attention in conservation planning against climate change. Objectives We evaluated the response and vulnerability of habitat connectivity to climate change for four ungulate species endemic to the Tibetan Plateau, and examined the robustness of protected areas (PAs) for the conservation of these species under climate change. Methods For each focal species, we developed ecological niche models to predict the spatial variations in habitat under climate change and conducted a network-theoretical analysis to estimate the consequent changes in habitat connectivity. Moreover, we used the circuit theory to characterize dispersal patterns of these species and conducted gap analyses to estimate the contribution of existing PAs to the conservation of these species. Results The four focal species will experience a remarkable connectivity loss that outpaced their habitat loss in response to climate change. Currently, 53.39 and 46.64% of the areas that could contribute to the habitat suitability and connectivity, respectively, of these species are unprotected. These values could further increase under future climate conditions. Conclusions Climate-driven habitat variations may lead to the loss of key connectivity areas between the habitats of ungulates, causing disproportionate decrease in habitat connectivity. The existing PAs on the Tibetan Plateau are not robust for the conservation of the four ungulates. Adjustment of certain key PAs may help to address the conservation gaps.