中国铁路客运供需矛盾与相关产业政策分析
Social Sciences In Guangdong（2019）
Abstract
在社会经济快速发展的背景下,中国铁路运输能力的提升落后于客运需求的快速增长,铁路供需矛盾日益突出.在考虑了潜在客运需求的条件下,构建了铁路客运供需缺口的估算模型,运用1978～2016年间的数据来测算铁路客运需求和供需缺口的变动.实证结果表明,客运需求增长了185.57％,当前铁路客运缺口率为46.38％.导致客运需求总量迅速增长的主要原因在于国民经济的发展、铁路运输条件的改善和定价机制的失效;而客运供需缺口居高不下的主要原因则是投资渠道单一导致建设资金不足,以及政企权责划分不清引发运输效率低下.因此,应通过推行差异化定价机制、加快铁路投融资体制改革、实施"统分结合的网运分离"等措施,分流客运需求,提高铁路供给效率,从而实现需求与供给的相对均衡.
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