Estimating technology performance improvement rates by mining patent data
Technological Forecasting and Social Change(2020)
摘要
•Patent data can be used to predict yearly technology improvement rates reliably.•Monte Carlo cross-validation backcasting chooses the most reliable predictor.•The centrality of cited patents in the citation network is the most reliable predictor.•Patent centrality accounts for 64% of the variance of technology improvement rates.•Managers and policy makers can use this method to support long-term planning.
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关键词
Technology performance,Exponential rates,Patent citations,Centrality,Technological trajectories
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