Predicting the spread of Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera) in the southeastern United States forestland: Mechanism and risk factors at the regional scale

•Chinese tallow spread is greatly limited by elevation and distance to roadways.•Hurricanes facilitate Chinese tallow spread from lower coastal areas to the inland.•The rate of spread of Chinese tallow is linearly correlated to the presence probability.•Oak-gum-cypress forests are most susceptible to Chinese tallow invasion.•Oak-pine forests in the high propagule pressure region favor Chinese tallow growth.