Towards an Ensemble-based Short-term Flood Forecasting Using an Event-based Flood Model - Incorporating Catchment-average Estimates of Soil Moisture

•An ensemble flood forecasting framework is developed for use with event-based model.•Ensembles of event loss parameters are generated using historical information.•Synthetic rainfall forecasts are used to test model over wide range of conditions.•Forecast reliability evaluated using 31 largest rainfall events over 20-year period.