Pandemic responses in vulnerable communities: a simulation-oriented approach

Populations living in favelas are facing even more vulnerabilities with the sudden escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic, as social distancing is challenging in such settings. Furthermore, these populations typically lack proper sanitation and hygiene conditions, which are requirements to adequately control the outbreak. This paper proposes the use of System Dynamics modeling to support the public policy-making process in order to avert negative effects of the pandemic in the Brazilian favelas based on measures elicited from the social movement named "Favelas Contra o Corona." The simulation model assessed the effectiveness of strategies and policy bundles encompassing temporary transfer of the favela population, supply of hygiene products, emergency sanitation structures, and expansion of Intensive Care Units. Results indicate that a suitable combination of strategies can bring significant effects to the number of avoidable deaths and the availability of Intensive Care Units for the population.