Forecasting the effectiveness of the DeWorm3 trial in interrupting the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths in three study sites in Benin, India and Malawi

James E. Truscott,Robert J. Hardwick,Marleen Werkman,Puthupalayam Kaliappan Saravanakumar,Malathi Manuel,Sitara S. R. Ajjampur,Kristjana H. Ásbjörnsdóttir,Kalua Khumbo,Stefan Witek-McManus,James Simwanza,Gilles Cottrell,Parfait Houngbégnon,Moudachirou Ibikounlé,Judd L. Walson,Roy M. Anderson

PARASITES & VECTORS（2021）

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摘要

Background The DeWorm3 project is an ongoing cluster-randomised trial assessing the feasibility of interrupting the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) through mass drug administration (MDA) using study sites in India, Malawi and Benin. In this article, we describe an approach which uses a combination of statistical and mathematical methods to forecast the outcome of the trial with respect to its stated goal of reducing the prevalence of infection to below 2

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关键词

Soil-transmitted helminths, Transmission interruption, Individual-based simulator, Heterogeneity

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