Apparent diffusion coefficient for the prediction of tumor response to neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

Background Patients with locally advanced rectal cancer generally have different response rates to preoperative neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy. This study investigated the value of the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) as a predictor to forecast the response to neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. Methods Ninety-one locally advanced rectal cancer patients who underwent neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy between 2015 and 2018 were enrolled. Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging was performed before treatment and within 4 weeks after the completion of neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy. Mean ADC values of regions of interest were evaluated by two radiologists. The tumor response was evaluated according to RESCIST 1.1. The cut-off value for the mean ADC and increasing percentage (ΔADC%) after neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy was calculated using the receiver operating characteristic curve. The response rate of pre-ADC and ΔADC% above/below the cut-off values was determined using the chi-square test, respectively. Primary tumor progression-free survival (PFS) was analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method, based on the pre-ADC and ΔADC% cut-off values. Results The cut-off value of mean pre-ADC and ΔADC% was 0.94 × 10 –3 mm 2 /s (80.36% sensitivity, 74.29% specificity) and 26.0% (73.21% sensitivity, 77.14% specificity), respectively. Lower mean pre-ADC values were related to a better response rate (83.3% vs 29.7%, P < 0.001) and PFS (26.12 vs 17.70 months, P = 0.004). ΔADC% above the cut-off value was also related to a better response rate (83.7% vs 35.7%, P < 0.001) and PFS (26.93 vs 15.65 months, P = 0.034). Conclusions The mean ADC pre-treatment value and ΔADC% were potential predictors for the tumor response in locally advanced rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy.