Evaluating empirical evidence for housing development effects on the management of remaining private-owned forest in the U.S.

Forest ecosystems are notably influenced by: 1) the rate and spatial distribution of forest land development, and 2) how remaining undeveloped forest lands are managed. Regarding this second factor, economics and ecology research conducted in different locations in the U.S. suggests that increasing housing development can reduce the profitability of commercial timber production and thus the intensity with which landowners manage their forest lands. Some studies, however, suggest that in some locations these effects are not evident. We sought to consider what contextual factors might influence where and when development effects on forest management might become evident. We began with a critical review and synthesis of existing research addressing the degree to which housing development influences private forest management. We followed that with an empirical (logit) analysis of the likelihood of “active” (e.g., thinning) and extractive (e.g., harvesting) management on nonindustrial private forest lands in Oregon and Washington (U.S.), as a function of stand, site, and other factors, including nearby housing development. From our review and synthesis of previous research literature, we conclude that the varying results of previous studies likely owe to a combination of biophysical and socioeconomic contextual factors that influence both how prevalent development impacts might be in different locations and how easily they can be observed in empirical analyses. The results of our analysis of active and extractive management in Oregon and Washington are largely consistent with this finding, with some regions showing statistically significant negative effects owing to housing development, and other regions remaining largely unaffected. We conclude that policymakers and managers need to consider the biophysical and socioeconomic context of different study areas when evaluating the implications of individual study results.