Separating The Impacts Of Climate Variability, Land-Use Change And Large Reservoir Operations On Streamflow In The Yangtze River Basin, China, Using A Hydrological Modeling Approach
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DIGITAL EARTH(2021)
摘要
Separating the individual effects of climate variability and human activities on streamflow is more important than just knowing their combined effects. In this paper, using a scenario-based hydrological simulation approach, the streamflow changes caused by climate variability and two different types of human activities (i.e. land-use change and large reservoirs operations) as well as the contribution rates of these three factors over 272 sub-basins in the Yangtze river basin were quantified and compared among 5 different periods (i.e. 1988-1992 (P1), 1993-1997 (P2), 1998-2002 (P3), 2003-2007 (P4) and 2008-2012 (P5)). Results demonstrate that, at the annual scale, climate variability played a leading role in the change in outflow of most sub-basins. With regard to the seasonal variations in discharge at Datong station, climate factors played a predominant role during P1-P2 and P2-P3. Since the Three Gorges Reservoir began operating in 2003, the discharge was enhanced by reservoirs in January-May and reduced by reservoirs in July-December. Reservoir and climate factors codetermined seasonal streamflow change during P3-P4 and P4-P5. Land-use change made the smallest contribution to seasonal discharge fluctuations. This study can support decision-making in regional water resources planning and management.
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关键词
Climate variability, land-use change, reservoirs, streamflow, Yangtze River Basin
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