Winter severity, fish community, and availability to traps explain most of the variability in estimates of adult sea lamprey in Lake Superior

Animal populations are assessed to estimate rates of artificial and natural mortality at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales to develop exploitation quotas. But how the population’s natural mortality rate and how the ability to observe the population changes through time are poorly understood in most invasive fishes, despite efforts to control their populations. By investigating a 30-year abundance index of invasive sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in Lake Superior, we found that the index was highly correlated (R2 = 0.75) with biotic and abiotic factors hypothesized to influence sea lamprey natural mortality and their availability to index traps. The index was lowest in years (1) following winters with above average ice cover on Lake Superior, (2) when stream discharge during sea lamprey migration was below average, (3) when adult sea lamprey were smaller than average, and (4) when adult sea lamprey were more likely to be distributed in tributaries on the east side of Lake Superior. These results highlight the need for policy makers to consider invasive species abundance indexes not just in the context of control effort, but also in the context of biotic and abiotic conditions because they could markedly influence natural mortality or the ability to observe highly suppressed populations.