Trade-Induced Job Loss and Support for Free Trade

Objective. In this paper we consider the possible effects of contextual economic conditions (i.e., job losses attributed to trade, general unemployment) and subjective economic evaluations on how Americans think about international trade. Methods. We use data from the 2016 Voter Study Group survey and from the 2016 American National Election Study, and we supplement these survey data with data on state contextual variables from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and from the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program of the U.S. Department of Labor. Results. We find that state job losses linked to trade have discernible effects on Americans' attitudes toward trade, as do subjective economic evaluations tied to confidence and anxiety about the economy. Conclusion. Simply, (trade-related) economic context has a strong effect on how Americans think about expanded and free trade.