Adolescent Marijuana Use in the United States and Structural Breaks: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis, 1991-2018

To investigate temporal patterns, sociodemographic gradients, and structural breaks in adolescent marijuana use in the United States from 1991 to 2018, we used hierarchical age-period-cohort logistic regression models to distinguish temporal effects of marijuana use among 8th, 10th, and 12th graders from 28 waves of the Monitoring the Future survey (1991-2018). Structural breaks in period effects were further detected via a dynamic-programing-based method. Net of other effects, we found a clear age-related increase in the probability of marijuana use (10.46%, 23.17%, and 31.19% for 8th, 10th, and 12th graders, respectively). Period effects showed a substantial increase over time (from 16.23% in 2006 to 26.38% in 2018), while cohort effects remained stable throughout the study period. Risk of adolescent marijuana use varied by sex, racial group, family status, and parental education. Significant structural breaks during 1995-1996, 2006-2008, and 2011-2013 were identified in different subpopulations. A steady increase in marijuana use among adolescents during the latter years of this time period was identified. Adolescents who were male, were non-Black, lived in nonintact families, and had less educated parents were especially at risk of marijuana usage. Trends in adolescent marijuana use changed significantly during times of economic crisis.