Going beyond the mean: economic benefits of myocardial infarction secondary prevention

Background Using the example of secondary prophylaxis of myocardial infarction (MI), our aim was to establish a framework for assessing cost consequences of compliance with clinical guidelines; thereby taking cost trajectories and cost distributions into account. Methods Swiss mandatory health insurance claims from 1840 persons with hospitalization for MI in 2014 were analysed. Included persons were predominantly male (74%), had a median age of 73 years, and 71% were pre-exposed to drugs for secondary prophylaxis, prior to index hospitalization. Guideline compliance was defined as being prescribed recommended 4-class drug prophylaxis including drugs from the following four classes: beta-blockers, statins, aspirin or P2Y 12 inhibitors, and angiotension-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers. Health care expenditures (HCE) accrued over 1 year after index hospitalization were compared by compliance status using two-part regression, trajectory analysis, and counterfactual decomposition analysis. Results Only 32% of persons received recommended 4-class prophylaxis. Compliant persons had lower HCE (− 4865 Swiss Francs [95% confidence interval − 8027; − 1703]) and were more likely to belong to the most favorable HCE trajectory (with 6245 Swiss Francs average annual HCE and comprising 78% of all studied persons). Distributional analyses showed that compliance-associated HCE reductions were more pronounced among persons with HCE above the median. Conclusions Compliance with recommended prophylaxis was robustly associated with lower HCE and more favorable cost trajectories, but mainly among persons with high health care expenditures. The analysis framework is easily transferrable to other diseases and provides more comprehensive information on HCE consequences of non-compliance than mean-based regressions alone.