The Prognostic Validity of the Acute Myeloid Leukemia Composite Model in Predicting Risks of One-Year Mortality among Patients in Atlantic Canada: A Multi-Centre Experience

Background Intensive chemotherapy is the standard of care for remission induction for fit patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML). However, assessing the prognostic impact of comorbidities on outcomes when counselling patients remains a challenge. To this end, we sought to validate the prognostic validity of a newly proposed AML composite model (AML-CM) which incorporates both comorbidities and leukemia-specific features to predict overall mortality following administration of intensive induction chemotherapy. Methods We retrospectively collected data on patients with newly diagnosed AML who received their first induction chemotherapy in Halifax, NS and St. John's, NL, Canada. The AML-CM scores were calculated as per previously published guidelines (Sorror et al in 2017). Logistic regression models were performed to analyze 8-week and 1-year mortality and competing risk regression with Fine and Grey model to model overall survival after adjusting for known variables. Results 194 patients treated January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2017 were identified. Fifty-six percent were males. Median age at induction was 54 years with an age range from 18 to 75 years. Thirty-eight percent of patients were 60 years or older. Molecular/cytogenetic risk per ELN classification was as follows: 23% favourable risk, 37% intermediate risk, 34% high risk, and 6% unknown. The most frequently used regimen was the standard 3+7 regimen (daunorubicin and cytarabine). The AML-CM was predictive of 8-week, odds ratio 2.39 (95%CI 1.09-5.239) AML-CM 7-9 vs AML-CM 1-4, (p-value 0.0284) and 1-year mortality, odds ratio 11.76 (95% CI 2.45-56.51) AML-CM 10+ vs AML-CM 1-4 (p-value 0.0021). Overall survival was inversely proportional to increasing AML-CM scores (p Conclusions The AML-CM is a valid prognosticator for early and late mortality in our patient population. Our findings emphasize the significance of comorbidities assessment prior to induction therapy for AML and the potential use in tailoring targeted interventions to mitigate their risks alongside leukemia treatments. Additionally, the AML-CM could be utilized to adjust for the impact of comorbidities in clinical trials investigating newer intensive AML therapies.