FORMATION MECHANISM TIME SERIES MODELLING AND EXPERT SYSTEM PREDICTION OF ALGAL BLOOM

The formation mechanism models and prediction methods of algal bloom in existence are of poor environmental adaptability and hard to reflect dynamic change of algal bloom formation process in lakes and reservoirs. To solve this problem, time-varying formation mechanism modelling and expert system prediction of algal bloom in lakes and reservoirs are put forward in this paper. According to various influence factors of algal bloom formation, such as environmental factors and water quality factors, time-varying characteristics of algal bloom formation mechanism is represented by time series model based on water quality factors data, and environmental sensitivity of algal bloom under sudden change in the weather is represented by expert system model based on environment factors data respectively. These two kinds of modelling methods are used to predict algal bloom alternately by switching between absolute and relative thresholds based on the dominant influence factors of algal bloom at different time in the actual lake and reservoir, to improve the prediction accuracy of algal bloom, provide effective reference for the environmental protection department and play an important role in protection and improvement of lakes and reservoirs water environment.