A prediction model of masticatory performance change in 50- to 70-year-old Japanese: The Suita study.

OBJECTIVES:Declines in masticatory performance might be a risk factor for worsening nutritional intake and result in general frailty. The present study constructed and investigated a method to predict the extent to which objective masticatory performance declines with age in cases with poor oral health status. METHODS:Participants comprised 1201 participants in the Suita study with dental checkup at both baseline and follow-up (500 men and 701 women; age at baseline, 65.6 ± 7.8 years; mean follow-up, 5.1 ± 1.1 years). First, multiple linear regression analysis was performed with masticatory performance at follow-up as the dependent variable and sex as well as baseline age, number of functional teeth, maximum bite force, occlusal support, periodontal status, salivary flow rate, and masticatory performance as independent variables. Scores were assigned to each factor based on the standardized partial regression coefficient obtained from multiple linear regression analysis. Participants were divided into quintile groups (Q1-Q5) based on total scores for factors, and rates of masticatory performance change for each group were calculated and compared. RESULTS:Mean rates of masticatory performance change in groups Q1-Q5 from the model to predict declining masticatory performance were: Q1, -9.7%; Q2, -12.7%; Q3, -18.0%; Q4, -19.9%; and Q5, -29.8%.Thus there was a trend for masticatory performance to decrease with decreasing score. CONCLUSIONS:The model developed in this study quantitatively predicted declines in masticatory performance after approximately 5 years. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE:We developed a model for predicting the extent to which masticatory performance will change over the next 5 years. This model may offer a useful tool when taking measures to prevent declines in masticatory performance with aging.