Empirical modelling of auroral absorption during disturbed periods of interplanetary coronal mass ejection events

Energetic charged particle precipitation associated with solar wind perturbations causes enhanced high-frequency radiowave absorption in the high-latitude ionosphere. This study models 38.2 MHz cosmic noise absorption (CNA) by utilising measurements from the Imaging Riometer for Ionospheric Studies (IRIS) at Kilpisjärvi, Finland obtained during solar cycle 23 (1996–2009) associated with the passage of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) past Earth; ICMEs are a major driver of enhanced geomagnetic activity. Superposed epoch analysis suggests that the r6absorption vs. time profile depends on whether ICME arrival occurs in the day-time (10–14 MLT) or night-time (22-02 MLT) for IRIS, with peak absorption occurring ~2–3 h ahead of ICME arrival or ~4 h after ICME arrival, respectively. We determine which combinations of solar wind and IMF parameters show the best correlation with the absorption associated with day-time or night-time arriving ICMEs using superposed epoch analysis and the least squares estimation method. Various combinations of solar wind parameters (including bulk velocity v, density n, and the interplanetary magnetic field north and south components Bz and the SYMH geomagnetic index), have been ranked to obtain the best coupling function for the absorption associated with day- and night-time arriving ICMEs. The absorption for day-time events is found to correlate closely with the solar wind dynamic pressure, SYMH, and the northward direction of the Bz while the absorption for night-time events is most closely related to the direction of the Bz and SYMH. The coupling functions are found to model the observed absorption successfully, with correlation coefficients of ~0.7–0.8 between the observed and modelled absorption.