Bayesian Belief Network models as trade-off tools of ecosystem services in the Guayas River Basin in Ecuador

•Bayesian Belief Network models were developed to assess the trade-off between ecosystem services.•Agricultural and water management optionscould be balanced and integrated.•Crop types and not farming scale and type are the maindrivers for economic returns.•Optimizing land use (LU) by considering the crops’ edaphoclimatic needs allows environmentalgains.•LU optimization integrated with agricultural intensification may mitigate productivity losses.