A Model on the Rise and Decline of South Korean Anti-American Sentiment

Most of the literature on the 2002 candlelight vigils in South Korea (Korea) has ascribed the cause of the anti-Americanism of these protests to domestic factors. Authors predicted that any change in United States policy on Korea would not substantially improve the two countries' strained alliance because the fundamental problem was rooted in Korea's domestic transformation and subsequent shifts in perspective towards North Korea. However, South Korea has once again become one of the world's most pro-American countries. This study claims that South Korea's domestic transformation is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition to give rise to anti-American protest and thus anti-American sentiment is merely latent in the South Korean public consciousness and will not manifest itself unless it is ill-managed. A comprehensive analytical model is presented to predict the rise and decline of anti-American protest, incorporating period as well as generational effect. The model depicts the dynamic process of mass demonstrations in which cognitive basis and emotional incidents interact.