Impacts of multi-purpose reservoir construction, land-use change and climate change on runoff characteristics in the Poyang Lake basin, China

•Use evapotranspiration models to interpret anthropogenic and climatic impacts.•Multi-purpose reservoirs caused pronounced differences in sub-basin flow patterns.•Land use change had small impacts on evapotranspiration losses relative to climate.•This basin’s evapotranspiration losses are likely to increase due to future climate.