On Statistical Power for Case Control Host Genomic Studies of COVID 19

The identification of genetic variation that directly impacts infection susceptibility and disease severity of COVID-19 is an important step towards risk stratification, personalized treatment plans, therapeutic and vaccine development and deployment. Given the importance of study design in infectious disease genetic epidemiology, we use simulation and draw on current estimates of exposure, infectivity and test accuracy of COVID-19 to demonstrate the feasibility of detecting host genetic factors associated with susceptibility and severity with published COVID-19 study designs. We demonstrate why studying susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection could be futile at the early stages of the pandemic. Our insights can aid in the interpretation of genetic findings emerging in the literature and guide the design of future host genetic studies. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement Y.L. is a trainee of the CANSSI Ontario STAGE (Strategic Training for Advanced Genetic Epidemiology) program at the University of Toronto and recipient of the CANSSI COVID-19 Rapid Response Program. The senior authors represent the Genetic Epidemiology Committee of the Canadian Genomics Enterprise (CGeN) Hostseq project, which is funded by Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada through Genome Canada. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: N/A All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes No data were used in this manuscript.