Pretreatment Primary Tumor Stage is a Risk Factor for Recurrence in Patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Who Achieve Pathological Complete Response After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

Background Although pathological complete response (pCR) after multimodal treatment for esophageal cancer is associated to the best prognosis, recurrence may occur in 20–40% of cases. The present study investigated the recurrence pattern and predictive factors of recurrence after pCR in patients with esophageal cancer. Methods In this study, 427 patients received preoperative treatment for either esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) or adenocarcinoma at Verona University Hospital between 2000 and 2018. Of these, 145 patients (34%) achieved a pCR. Long-term prognosis, recurrence pattern, and risk factors for relapse in pCR patients were analysed. Results During a median follow-up of 52 months, 37 relapses (25.5%) occurred, mostly at distant level ( n = 28). Nearly all locoregional relapses (8/9) were detected in SCC cases. The 5-year overall survival and cancer-related survival were 71.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 62.6–78.9%) and 77.5% (95% CI 68.5–84.2%) respectively. Male sex, higher body mass index, and cT4 were significant risk factors for recurrence at univariate analysis. The multivariate analysis confirmed the role of cT4 as predictor of recurrence only in SCCs. Conclusions Esophageal cancer recurs in about one-fourth of pCR cases. A fair number of local recurrences occurs in SCCs, but the main problem is the systemic disease control. According to our analysis, SCCs patients with cT4 stage have an increased risk to recur, so they should be managed differently by a personalized approach in terms of adjuvant treatment and follow-up.