Rice yield response forecasting tool (YIELDCAST) for supporting climate change adaptation decision in Sahel

•We used gene-expression programming (GEP) with weather data to develop YIELDCAST tool.•YIELDCAST was forced with GCMs downscaled outputs to forecast upland rice yields.•GEP is capable to downscale climate variables and forecast rice yield in Sahel region.•Increase in temperatures and decrease in rains will hinder yields to increase.•Yield forecasts suggested no major yield increase, unless measures are taken.