An epidemiologic approach to environmental monitoring: cyanobacteria in Australia’s Murray–Darling basin
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment(2020)
摘要
Risk based management of aquatic resources for ecosystem and public health requires water managers and health professionals to work together. Using an epidemiologic time-series modelling approach, we assess patterns of risk for alert-level cyanobacterial abundance with water temperature. We focus on six sites along the Murray–Darling Drainage Basin, using the longest continuous record of algal abundance in Australia. Alert-level cyanobacterial abundance showed a non-linear and lagged response to water temperature across all six sites, after controlling for relative water discharge. For three sites there was a positive relationship of high-water temperature with the risk of alert-level abundance. These three sites also showed a substantial lagged effect, with the risk remaining high at a lag of 1 month following high water temperatures. The higher than average risk of alert-level cyanobacterial abundance with extreme water temperature and the persistence of this effect for 1 month highlight the applicability of these models to understand non-linear and time-dependent relationships in complex systems which are managed for ecosystem and population health. The site-specific relationships provide guidance for local authorities to develop water quality-related environmental and public health responses to a variable climate.
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关键词
Environmental, Epidemiology, Climate, Water, Health, Temperature
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