Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts supporting water resource management

Interest and skill in subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting is growing across the earth sciences including hydrology. In this presentation we will demonstrate the development of gridded (1/16 th degree resolution) S2S hydrologic forecasts for the Pacific Northwestern United States. The meteorological forecasts are a blend of subseasonal and seasonal meteorological forecasts from the National Center for Environmental Prediction. The seasonal forecast anomalies are downscaled to a daily time step and 1/16 th degree resolution using a quantile mapping method similar to the bias correction spatial disaggregation (BCSD) method. The forecasts are used to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to create forecasted spatial fields of snow water equivalent and soil moisture as well as streamflow. We will highlight two application examples of these S2S hydrologic forecasts. First, the forecasts …