Estimating the Effect and Cost Effectiveness of Facemasks in Reducing the Spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV 2) in Uganda

Evidence that face masks provide effective protection against respiratory infections in the community is scarce. However, face masks are widely used by health workers as part of droplet precautions when caring for patients with respiratory infections. It would therefore be reasonable to suggest that consistent widespread use of face masks in the community could prevent further spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In this study we examine public face mask wearing in Uganda where a proportion wears masks to protect against acquiring, and the other to prevent from transmitting SARS-CoV-2. The objective of this study was to determine what percentage of the population would have to wear face masks to reduce susceptibility to and infectivity of SARS-COV-2 in Uganda, keeping the basic reproduction number below unity and/or flattening the curve. We used an SEIAQRD model for the analysis. Results show that implementation of facemasks has a relatively large impact on the size of the coronavirus epidemic in Uganda. We find that the critical mask adherence is 5 per 100 when 80% wear face masks. A cost-effective analysis shows that utilizing funds to provide 1 public mask to the population has a per capita compounded cost of USD 1.34. If provision of face masks is done simultaneously with supportive care, the per capita compounded cost is USD 1.965, while for the case of only treatment and no provision of face masks costs each Ugandan USD 4.0579. We conclude that since it is hard to achieve a 100% adherence to face masks, government might consider provision of face masks in conjunction with provision of care. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No external funding received ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Data available upon request