A Simple, SIR like but Individual Based l i AIR Model: Application in Comparison of COVID 19 in New York City and Wuhan

COVID-19 has spread around the world with nearly 360,000 deaths from the virus as of today (5/28/2020). Mathematical models have played an important role in many key policy discussions about COVID-19. SIR or SIR-derived models are a common modeling technique. However, the application of these models needs to solve complicated differential equations, enabling use of these models only by professional researchers. In this study, a simple, SIR-like but individual-based model, the l-i AIR model, is presented. The parameters l and i represent the length of the latent period and the infectious period, respectively. The variable A stands for the number of the infected people in the active infectious period, I for the number of cumulative infected people, and R for the number of the people in recovery or death. The nth terms of the three variables are derived, which can be easily calculated in Microsoft Excel, making the program easy to be used in most offices. A transmission coefficient k and a transient incidence rate a of the infected people are induced in the model to examine the effect of social distancing and the testing capacity of coronavirus on the epidemic curves. The simulated daily new cases from this l-i AIR model can fit very well with the reported daily new cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China and in New York City, USA, providing important information about latent period, infectious period and lockdown efficiency, and calculating the number of actual infected people who are positive in antibodies. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement N/A ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: N/A All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data of daily new cases of COVID-19 were obtained from reliable sources. They are available to public. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19\_pandemic\_in\_New\_York_(state)][1] [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)