Effects of cost surface uncertainty on current density estimates from circuit theory.

Background: Conservation practitioners are often interested in developing land use plans that increase landscape connectivity, which is defined as the degree to which the landscape facilitates or impedes movement among resource patches. Landscape connectivity is often estimated with a cost surface that indicates the varying costs experienced by an organism in moving across a landscape. True, or absolute costs are rarely known however, and therefore assigning costs to different landscape elements is often a challenge in creating cost surface maps. As such, we consider it important to understand the sensitivity of connectivity estimates to uncertainty in cost estimates. Methods: We used simulated landscapes to test the sensitivity of current density estimates from circuit theory to varying relative cost values, fragmentation, and number of cost classes (i.e., thematic resolution). Current density is proportional to the probability of use during a random walk. Using Circuitscape software, we simulated electrical current between pairs of nodes to create current density maps. We then measured the correlation of the current density values across scenarios. Results: In general, we found that cost values were highly correlated across scenarios with different cost weights (mean correlation ranged from 0.87 to 0.92). Changing the spatial configuration of landscape elements by varying the degree of fragmentation reduced correlation in current density across maps. We also found that correlations were more variable when the range of cost values in a map was high. Discussion: The low sensitivity of current density estimates to relative cost weights suggests that the measure may be reliable for land use applications even when there is uncertainty about absolute cost values, provided that the user has the costs correctly ranked. This finding should facilitate the use of cost surfaces by conservation practitioners interested in estimating connectivity and planning linkages and corridors.