Progression of Diabetic Complications in Subgroups of People with Long Term Diabetes Type 1 According to Clinical Course

Aims Prevention and prediction of microvascular complications are important aims of medical care in people with type 1 diabetes. Since the course of the disease is heterogenous, we tried to identify subgroups with specific risk profiles for m icrovascular complications. Methods Retrospective analysis of a cohort of 285 people (22637 consultations) with >10 years of type 1 diabetes. Persons were grouped into slow (<15 years), fast (>15 years) and non progressors according to the average onset of microvascular complications. Generalized estimating equations for binary outcomes were applied and pseudo coefficients of determination were calculated. Results Progression to microvascular disease was associated with age (OR: 1.034 [1.001-1.068]; p = 0.04), diabetes duration (OR: 1.057 [1.021-1.094]; p =0.002), HbA(1c)(OR: 1.035 [1.011-1.060]; p = 0.005), BMI (OR: 0.928 [0.866-0.994]; p=0.034) and the social strata index (OR: 0.910 [0.830-0.998]; p= 0.046). Generalized estimating equations predicted 31.02% and exclusion of HbA(1c) marginally reduced the valueto 28.88%. The proportion of patients with LADA was higher in fast than slow progressors [13 (26.5 %) vs. 14 (11.9 %); p = 0.019]. A generalized estimating equation comparing slow to fast progressors revealed no significant markers. Conclusion In our analysis, we were able to confirm known risk factors for microvascular disease in people with type 1 diabetes. Overall, prediction of individual risk was difficult, the effect of individual markers minor and we could not find differences regarding slow or fast progression. We therefore emphasis the need for additional markers to predict individual risk for microvascular disease.