The Impact of Export Restrictions on Production: A Synthetic Control Approach

In spite of the generalized use of quantitative restrictions on exports, there is little empirical research on their effectiveness to achieve the intended effects of reducing exports, increasing production for the domestic market, and reducing domestic prices. This paper aims at filling this gap by estimating the impact of quantitative restrictions on beef cattle exports in Bolivia, applying a synthetic control approach. Our main finding is that export restrictions have a negative impact not only on total production, but also on production for the domestic market. This fact, together with an increase in the domestic price, is consistent with a supply shift. The fact that export controls can shift supply and actually harm production for the domestic market bears important implications for the design of policies in the future.