Basic Income as a Policy Lever: A Case Study of Crime in Alaska

Since 1982, Alaska’s Permanent Fund has provided an annual dividend to all state residents, the world’s longest-running example of a basic income. Initially universal, from 1989 onwards eligibility was withdrawn from an increasing proportion of those in prison. This paper uses two evaluation approaches – synthetic control and Bayesian structural time series – to evaluate the impact of this payment on crime, in particular property crime. Neither approach can detect a significant effect, either before or after the change to eligibility. Despite this, the results provide evidence that the size of the payment is relevant, with larger amounts significantly reducing property crime. There is no evidence that this effect is reinforced by the change to the rules governing eligibility. The results demonstrate the potential for a basic income to encourage positive outcomes and lend support to payment being universal rather than conditional. JEL Codes: H24, I38, J18, K42