Modeling intracellular replication of flaviviruses

Recent technological advances have improved our knowledge of the replication process of Flaviviruses; however direct measurement of virus replication in the laboratory can be cost-prohibitive. Mathematical models of the within-host dynamics of virus replication can be useful for predicting virus load, which can affect virulence, transmission rate and rate of molecular evolution [1, 2]. In the case of arboviruses, most mathematical models have focused on transmission dynamics between hosts and vectors. Within-host replication of arboviruses (particularly Flaviviruses) has not been well-characterized mathematically. In this study, we model the replication of WNV in cell culture and generate testable predictions about the spread of the virus within a host. We study intracellular population dynamics of virus under a set of biologically sound parameter values and use statistical tools to quantify estimability of model parameters under distinct scenarios. The resulting mathematical model can also be applied in a clinical setting, where there is a growing body of work on the within-host dissemination of Flaviviruses.