Paper Title: ABM-Based Supply Chain Risk Analysis and Modelling

Understanding the impact of risks and related countermeasures in a supply chain is a challenging task. Especially, security risks, i.e. intentional and unauthorized acts against a supply chain, are considered emerging and important risks calling for heightened attention from managers as well as governmental actors. This paper aims to apply Agent Based Modelling to facilitate the quantification of the impacts of security risks and related countermeasures. Hence, the methodology is explained and a numerical case, based on postal operations in the region of Aragon, Spain, is provided. Results show that the methodology may provide very interesting insights in terms of reduction of security threats, potential to jam postal systems and ultimately experienced delays by customers.