Phase 1 : Update prior using external data WF simulation ABC : Data Distance distributions Updated prior MCMC : Posterior Data Phase 2 : Compute posterior using data Phase 2 A : Precompute

Marko Järvenpää, Mohamad R. Abdul Sater, Georgia K. Lagoudas, Paul C. Blainey, Loren G. Miller, James A. McKinnell, Susan S. Huang, Yonatan H. Grad2,∗, Pekka Marttinen1,∗ Aalto University Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health MIT Broad Institute, MIT and Harvard LA Biomedical Research Institute, Harbor-UCLA Medical Center LA County Department of Public Health, Acute Communicable Disease Control Unit University of California, Irvine School of Medicine (*equal contribution)