On Fast Multi-Shot COVID-19 Interventions for Post Lock-Down Mitigation
arXiv(2020)
摘要
Fast intermittent lock-down intervals with regular period are suggested as a
COVID-19 exit strategy from the widely adopted policy of total lock-down. Many
proposed exit strategies have risks and uncertainties which could lead to a
second wave of infection [1,2]. We demonstrate that our proposed policies have
the potential to be a method of virus suppression, while at the same time
allowing continued (albeit reduced) economic activity. Furthermore, these
policies, while not eliminating the virus, can nevertheless be sustained over
long periods of time, until a vaccine or treatment becomes available. The
robustness of these policies stems from the fact that they are open loop
methods; namely, lock-down periods are not triggered by measurements --
inevitably uncertain and delayed -- over short time scales such as hospital
admissions, but rather are driven by predictable, high-frequency, periodic
triggers in- and out- of lock-down. A slow and inherently robust outer
supervisory feedback loop, based on measurements over longer time scales, is
used to tune the parameters of the mitigation strategy. These methods can act
alone, or can be used in combination with other mitigation strategies, to
provide additional levels of effectiveness in their operation.
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