Predictive Power Of Dependence Measures For Quitting Smoking. Findings From The 2016 To 2018 Itc Four Country Smoking And Vaping Surveys

Introduction: To test whether urges to smoke and perceived addiction to smoking have independent predictive value for quit attempts and short-term quit success over and above the Heaviness of Smoking Index (HSI).Aims and Methods: Data were from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Wave 1 (2016) and Wave 2 (2018) surveys. About 3661 daily smokers (daily vapers excluded) provided data in both waves. A series of multivariable logistic regression models assessed the association of each dependence measure on odds of making a quit attempt and at least 1-month smoking abstinence.Results: Of the 3661 participants, 1594 (43.5%) reported a quit attempt. Of those who reported a quit attempt, 546 (34.9%) reported short-term quit success. Fully adjusted models showed that making quit attempts was associated with lower HSI (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.73 to 0.90, p < .001), stronger urges to smoke (aOR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.20, p = .002), and higher perceived addiction to smoking (aOR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.32 to 0.84, p = .008). Lower HSI (aOR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.40 to 0.87, p < .001), weaker urges to smoke (aOR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.76 to 0.95, p = .006), and lower perceived addiction to smoking (aOR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.32 to 0.91, p = .021) were associated with greater odds of short-term quit success. In both cases, overall R-2 was around 0.5.Conclusions: The two additional dependence measures were complementary to HSI adding explanatory power to smoking cessation models, but variance explained remains small.