Municipal solid waste available to the Chinese energy sector - Provincial projections to 2050.

•A forecast of mixed municipal solid waste (MSW) and sorted food waste to 2050.•The article combines econometrics and policy scenarios in MSW projections.•Results show mixed MSW from 159 to 340 million metric tons (MMT) in China by 2050.•Sorted food waste in China is expected up to 74 MMT by 2030 and 109 MMT by 2050.•The analysis suggests near-term MSW incineration over capacity in several provinces.