LACE index predicts age-specific unplanned readmissions and mortality after hospital discharge

Background The LACE index scoring tool ( L ength of stay, A cuity of admission, C o-morbidities and E mergency department visits) has been designed to predict hospital readmissions. We evaluated the ability of the LACE index to predict age-specific frequent admissions and mortality. Methods Analysis of prospectively collected data of alive-discharge episodes between 01/04/2017 and 31/03/2019 in an NHS hospital. Data on 14,878 men and 17,392 women of mean age 64.0 years, SD = 20.5, range 18.0–106.7 years were analysed. The association of the LACE index with frequency of all-cause readmissions within 28 days of discharge and over a 2-year period, and with all-cause mortality within 30 days or within 6 months after discharge from hospital were evaluated. Results Within LACE index scores of 0–4, 5–9 or ≥ 10, the proportions of readmission ≥ 2 times within 28 days of discharge were 0.1, 1.3 and 9.2% (χ 2 = 3070, p < 0.001) and over a 2-year period were 1.7, 4.8 and 19.1% (χ 2 = 3364, p < 0.001). Compared with a LACE index score of 0–4, a score ≥ 10 increased the risk (adjusted for age, sex and frequency of admissions) of death within 6 months of discharge by 6.8-fold (5.1–9.0, p < 0.001) among all ages, and most strongly in youngest individuals (18.0–49.9 years): adjusted odds ratio = 16.1 (5.7–45.8, p < 0.001). For those aged 50–59.9, 60–69.9, 70–79.9 and ≥ 80 years, odds ratios reduced progressively to 9.6, 7.7, 5.1 and 2.3, respectively. Similar patterns were observed for the association of LACE index with mortality within 30 days of hospital discharge. Conclusions The LACE index predicts short-term and long-term frequent admissions and short-term and medium-term mortality, most pronounced among younger individuals, after hospital discharge.