Early prediction model of organ/space surgical site infection after elective gastrointestinal or hepatopancreatobiliary cancer surgery

Background: Organ/space SSI is a significant clinical problem. However, early detection of organ/space SSI is difficult, and previous predictive models are limited in their prognostic ability. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model of organ/space surgical site infection (SSI) using postoperative day 3 laboratory data in patients who underwent gastrointestinal or hepatopancreatobiliary cancer resection. Methods: This retrospective cohort study using a single-center hospital data from April 2013 to September 2017 included all adult patients who underwent elective gastrointestinal or hepatopancreatobiliary cancer resection. The primary outcome was a presence of organ/space SSI including anastomotic leakage, pancreatic fistula, biliary fistula, or intra-abdominal abscess. We developed and validated a logistic regression model to predict organ/space SSI using laboratory data on postoperative day (POD) 3. Similar models using laboratory data on POD 1 or 5 were developed to compare the predictive ability of each model. Results: A total of 1578 patients were included. Organ/space SSI was diagnosed in 107 patients, with median diagnosis days of 6 (interquartile range, 4-9 days) after surgery. A prediction model using five commonly measured variables on POD 3 was created with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.883 (95% CI 0.819-0.946). The AUC of a model with POD 1 laboratory data was 0.751 (95%CI 0.655-0.848), while that of POD 5 laboratory data was 0.818 (95%CI 0.730-0.906). Conclusions: Laboratory data on POD 3 could forecast organ/space SSI precisely. Further prospective studies are warranted to investigate the clinical impact of this model. (C) 2020 Japanese Society of Chemotherapy and The Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.