Investigation and regional fuzzy health risk management of lead and cadmium in best-selling cigarettes across China

China is home to the world’s largest cigarette maker, and with more than 320 million smokers, accounts for a fifth of world annual deaths from smoking-related diseases. Basic tobacco characteristics and its lead (Pb) and cadmium (Cd) contents of the 20 best-selling Chinese cigarette brands were detected using wet digestion-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Pb and Cd contents of the selected brands of cigarettes ranged from 1.3861 μg/g to 7.7124 μg/g and 2.9137 μg/g to 5.4841 μg/g, respectively, showing a significant correlation with tobacco weight per cigarette. Fuzzy health risk assessment via inhaling pathway of mainstream smoke was carried out for Pb and Cd based on the regional exposure parameters and fuzzification of the key variables. Results indicated the indexes of (non-)carcinogenic risk of tobacco Pb in all studied brands were below the corresponding general acceptable risk criteria, while that of tobacco Cd exceeded. Cd was identified as the priority control metal in the studied cigarettes. Moreover, the maximum membership probabilities of E08, E09, S11, S18 and S19 were in marginal range of 50%–60%, showing existed uncertainties and possibly misleading decision-makers. Spatially, the carcinogenic risks posed by regional cigarette Cd showed a relatively high level in the Southern, Southwestern and Northern China. Based on Level II for carcinogenic risk (1.00E-05), the limit daily consumption and limit concentration of Cd were obtained for each brand, and the result ranges were generally 2–4 cigarettes per day and 0.5–1.7 μg/g. Presently, it is of significance for the related international/local decision-makers to establish a comprehensive supervisory framework and system for Cd (and other typical toxic metals) in cigarettes from its life cycle perspective.