Standardized thresholds of volume-based PET/CT parameters predicting survival of patients with pancreatic head cancer treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy

Objective To explore standardized relative thresholds of volume-based parameters on FDG PET/CT, and define the optimal prognosticator among the relative thresholds for patients with locally advanced pancreatic head cancer (LAPHC) treated by stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Methods Thirty-five patients with LAPHC were enrolled, and all underwent SBRT and baseline FDG PET/CT scan. Maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) was measured, and metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were calculated under the relative (30%, 40%, and 50%) thresholds of SUVmax. Survival analysis was performed via univariate and multivariate analyses, and independent prognostic factors were determined by Cox proportional hazard models and corresponding survival curves and scatter diagram were drawn. Results The median overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were 13.8 and 9.8 months, respectively. On univariate analysis, MTV(40%) < 5.6 cm 3 , accumulated dose (AD) ≥ 36 Gy and the absence of pancreatic duct (PD) stents were significantly correlated with both superior OS and PFS, TLG (40%) < 29.9 was related to better OS and biological effective dose (BED 10 ) ≥ 57.6 Gy was related to better PFS (all with p < 0.05). Further, multivariate analysis demonstrated both MTV (40%) and AD were independent prognosticators for OS and PFS, and BED 10 was an independent predictor for PFS (all with p < 0.05). Scatter diagram showed BED 10 to be a stronger clinical prognosis predictor for PFS than AD. Conclusions MTV (40%) was the optimal prognosticator among the relative thresholds of SUVmax for tumor delineation on PET/CT for LAPHC patients receiving SBRT. AD was also favorable indicators for OS and PFS of patients, and BED 10 was more sensitive than AD in predicting the PFS of patients.