Forecasts of future scenarios for airport noise based on collection and processing of web data

Purpose This paper presents an analysis of short-term (2025) scenarios for noise emission from civil air traffic in airport areas. Methods Flight movements and noise levels at a given airport are predicted using a web-data-informed methodology based on the ECAC Doc.29 model. This methodology, developed by the authors in a previous work, relies on the collection and processing of air traffic web data to reconstruct flight events to be fed into the ECAC model. Three new elements have been included: i) topographic information from digital elevation models, ii) a fleet substitution algorithm to estimate the impact of newer aircraft, and iii) a generator of flight events to simulate the expected traffic increase. Results The effects of these elements are observed in 2025 scenarios for the airports of London Heathrow, Frankfurt and Vienna-Schwechat. The results quantify the noise reduction from new aircraft and its increment due to the air traffic growth forecast by EUROCONTROL.