Development of the Korean-specific radiation-induced cancer risk model for level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA)

As a follow-up measure to improve safety after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, a level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) was enacted as a notice in Korea. In this study, as a part of developing a Korean-specific level 3 PSA code, the radiation-induced cancer risk model for the Korean population was developed for reflecting ethnic and regional characteristics. The Korean-specific risk models of cancer incidence were primarily developed by reference to the biological effects of ionizing radiation (BEIR) VII model for 12 cancer types including leukaemia. For improving the generic limitation in the BEIR VII model, models for leukaemia, thyroid, and breast cancers were newly developed for applying to the Korean population. The uncertainty analysis was also carried out with the Monte-Carlo method. In future, the Korean-specific cancer risk model is supposed to be installed as a component module in the Korean level 3 PSA code system, and be utilized to estimate cancer effects from nuclear accidents.